I have done this before...cheating and creating a blog post out of an update e-mail to Gallup leadership. At least I am updating this blog again. It's only been about 7 months. Enjoy:
Jim and Jane,
Greetings from the Embassy Compound! Now that some of the dust has settled, both literally and figuratively, I wanted to send an update on how things look on the ground out here.
I arrived a few days before the elections which allowed both Dan Foy and I to be at the Embassy on election day. The morning of March 7th started with great anticipation and a healthy level of concern. Everyone expected an increase in the level of violence; the questions centered around the scale of increase and effectiveness of attacks. The Government of Iraq (GoI) and the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) issued a curfew for the night of the elections. Conversely, al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) issued a curfew for the daylight hours on election day. The stage was set for a showdown between the government and insurgent groups.
Moving around the Embassy Compound during the first hours of sunlight, we heard a rapid succession of explosions coming from all around us. In those first few hours we estimated hearing up to 100 explosions and many of us began to fear the worst. As the morning progressed, however, those explosions became fewer and by afternoon they basically stopped. Early in the afternoon, word came that those rapid explosions throughout the morning were mostly water bottles, filled with explosives and placed in garbage cans; they were sound bombs capable of little to no damage but intended to frighten people away from the polls.
There were a handful of legitimate and successful attacks. The most successful was on a building in Baghdad located near a polling center, killing just over 30 Iraqi citizens. However, the vast majority of attempted attacks were thwarted before they reached their primary targets. Most suicide bombers who successfully detonated their vests were forced to do so well before they reached security checkpoints. The end result was that few polling sites saw any violence. The ISF demonstrated they were well prepared for their largest challenge since assuming primary security operations within cities last July.
As the day went on, reports of voter turnout rapidly increased. The intimidation and fear created in the early hours of the day steadily passed; the resilience and determination of the Iraqi people was illustrated by the lines forming at polling places. By the end of the day, it was hard to view the elections as anything less than an overwhelming success in the face of adversity. Voter turnout figures looked optimistic, the number of successful attacks appeared relatively low and reports of fraud were few and far between.
The following day, it appeared as though our early optimism was confirmed. Gallup's voter turnout estimates proved to be the most accurate predictor of final voter turnout. Final turnout was certified at 62.4% which was a little more than a 10% increase from the provincial elections in 2009. Over 1 million more Iraqis participated in these elections than in the last national elections in 2005. (The voter turnout percentage in 2010 appears lower compared to 2005 due to the increased number of registered and eligible voters in 2010. A change in registration procedures automatically registered nearly every Iraqi for these elections.) The United Nations unequivocally declared the elections to be as free and fair as possible, exceeding most observers' and experts' expectations of legitimacy to the election process.
Final results have been slow to come in, partially by design. The Independent High Electoral Council (IHEC) has implemented triple redundancies in counting and certifying vote counts because election officials have correctly anticipated a high degree of scrutiny on this process. The result is claims of fraud have been difficult to make. The process has been monitored by representatives from every political party, independent, international election monitors and representatives from IHEC. With so many eyes on the process, it is difficult for claims of malfeasance to gain traction.
To be honest, I personally feel more confident in the legitimacy of the election process in Iraq in 2010 than I did about election legitimacy following the 2000 US elections. At the very least, it does not appear there will be lingering controversies over hanging chads following the Iraqi elections.
But make no mistake...the road ahead remains tenuous and treacherous. No single coalition will gain a majority of the vote and thus no coalition alone will be able to form the government without negotiating and bartering. Current Prime Minister Nori al Maliki's State of Law (SoL) coalition appears to have reached a plurality, but is still far short of the majority needed to form the government on their own. Ayad Allawi heads the Iraqiya List which appears to be coming in second. Allawi is a secular Shia who has gained the trust of many Sunni groups and has aspirations for the Prime Minister position as well. The Kurdish Alliance will retain control of the northern provinces, but a challenge from the Goran list (meaning "change" in Kurdish) has slightly fractured their previously monolithic voting block. Kurdish support is being aggressively courted by all of the other coalitions. The INA coalition, which contains ISCI and the Sadr Trend, appears to be coming in third and could still play a major role in shifting the tide in the Prime Minister nomination.
Although most attention is being focused on Maliki and Allawi for the Prime Minister position, keep an open mind to a relative dark horse. Jafar Mohamad Baqir al Sadr is a member of the Dawa party (part of SoL) who is an interesting candidate. He is a secular Shia, educated at the American University in Jordan. Viewed as largely non-sectarian, he is respected by both Sunnis and Kurds. He has remained relatively neutral politically and has thus not alienated any major political parties or coalitions. He comes from the well known and respected Sadr family and could prove to be a compromise candidate who could unify many of these disparate political players and parties.
The only thing that is certain right now is that an ocean of uncertainty lies ahead of the Iraqi political process. But what is most important is that it is an Iraqi political system now. This will certainly not be a government appointed by an American leader as an interim solution to a political vacuum. For the first time in a long time, we will see democratically elected leaders come out of the political process to lead a Middle Eastern government. It may not be what we envision democracy to look like in the United States, but that doesn't really matter right now. What matters is that the Iraqi people own and continue to support their process.
David Ignatius wrote a wonderful editorial in the Washington Post this past week-end. I leave you with the thought he closed his article with. It is a quote from Barack Obama during the campaign: "We must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were careless getting in."
We must be patient, we must remain committed and we must continue to do what is right over what is popular.
I look forward to seeing everyone back in the US in a couple of weeks.
Regards,
BRIAN M. KIRCHHOFF
Project Manager - Government
U.S. Embassy
Baghdad, Iraq
GALLUP CONSULTING
maximizer | woo | strategic | ideation | futuristic
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