Post Election Update from Baghdad

I have done this before...cheating and creating a blog post out of an update e-mail to Gallup leadership. At least I am updating this blog again. It's only been about 7 months. Enjoy:

Jim and Jane,

Greetings from the Embassy Compound! Now that some of the dust has settled, both literally and figuratively, I wanted to send an update on how things look on the ground out here.

I arrived a few days before the elections which allowed both Dan Foy and I to be at the Embassy on election day. The morning of March 7th started with great anticipation and a healthy level of concern. Everyone expected an increase in the level of violence; the questions centered around the scale of increase and effectiveness of attacks. The Government of Iraq (GoI) and the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) issued a curfew for the night of the elections. Conversely, al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) issued a curfew for the daylight hours on election day. The stage was set for a showdown between the government and insurgent groups.

Moving around the Embassy Compound during the first hours of sunlight, we heard a rapid succession of explosions coming from all around us. In those first few hours we estimated hearing up to 100 explosions and many of us began to fear the worst. As the morning progressed, however, those explosions became fewer and by afternoon they basically stopped. Early in the afternoon, word came that those rapid explosions throughout the morning were mostly water bottles, filled with explosives and placed in garbage cans; they were sound bombs capable of little to no damage but intended to frighten people away from the polls.

There were a handful of legitimate and successful attacks. The most successful was on a building in Baghdad located near a polling center, killing just over 30 Iraqi citizens. However, the vast majority of attempted attacks were thwarted before they reached their primary targets. Most suicide bombers who successfully detonated their vests were forced to do so well before they reached security checkpoints. The end result was that few polling sites saw any violence. The ISF demonstrated they were well prepared for their largest challenge since assuming primary security operations within cities last July.

As the day went on, reports of voter turnout rapidly increased. The intimidation and fear created in the early hours of the day steadily passed; the resilience and determination of the Iraqi people was illustrated by the lines forming at polling places. By the end of the day, it was hard to view the elections as anything less than an overwhelming success in the face of adversity. Voter turnout figures looked optimistic, the number of successful attacks appeared relatively low and reports of fraud were few and far between.

The following day, it appeared as though our early optimism was confirmed. Gallup's voter turnout estimates proved to be the most accurate predictor of final voter turnout. Final turnout was certified at 62.4% which was a little more than a 10% increase from the provincial elections in 2009. Over 1 million more Iraqis participated in these elections than in the last national elections in 2005. (The voter turnout percentage in 2010 appears lower compared to 2005 due to the increased number of registered and eligible voters in 2010. A change in registration procedures automatically registered nearly every Iraqi for these elections.) The United Nations unequivocally declared the elections to be as free and fair as possible, exceeding most observers' and experts' expectations of legitimacy to the election process.

Final results have been slow to come in, partially by design. The Independent High Electoral Council (IHEC) has implemented triple redundancies in counting and certifying vote counts because election officials have correctly anticipated a high degree of scrutiny on this process. The result is claims of fraud have been difficult to make. The process has been monitored by representatives from every political party, independent, international election monitors and representatives from IHEC. With so many eyes on the process, it is difficult for claims of malfeasance to gain traction.

To be honest, I personally feel more confident in the legitimacy of the election process in Iraq in 2010 than I did about election legitimacy following the 2000 US elections. At the very least, it does not appear there will be lingering controversies over hanging chads following the Iraqi elections.

But make no mistake...the road ahead remains tenuous and treacherous. No single coalition will gain a majority of the vote and thus no coalition alone will be able to form the government without negotiating and bartering. Current Prime Minister Nori al Maliki's State of Law (SoL) coalition appears to have reached a plurality, but is still far short of the majority needed to form the government on their own. Ayad Allawi heads the Iraqiya List which appears to be coming in second. Allawi is a secular Shia who has gained the trust of many Sunni groups and has aspirations for the Prime Minister position as well. The Kurdish Alliance will retain control of the northern provinces, but a challenge from the Goran list (meaning "change" in Kurdish) has slightly fractured their previously monolithic voting block. Kurdish support is being aggressively courted by all of the other coalitions. The INA coalition, which contains ISCI and the Sadr Trend, appears to be coming in third and could still play a major role in shifting the tide in the Prime Minister nomination.

Although most attention is being focused on Maliki and Allawi for the Prime Minister position, keep an open mind to a relative dark horse. Jafar Mohamad Baqir al Sadr is a member of the Dawa party (part of SoL) who is an interesting candidate. He is a secular Shia, educated at the American University in Jordan. Viewed as largely non-sectarian, he is respected by both Sunnis and Kurds. He has remained relatively neutral politically and has thus not alienated any major political parties or coalitions. He comes from the well known and respected Sadr family and could prove to be a compromise candidate who could unify many of these disparate political players and parties.

The only thing that is certain right now is that an ocean of uncertainty lies ahead of the Iraqi political process. But what is most important is that it is an Iraqi political system now. This will certainly not be a government appointed by an American leader as an interim solution to a political vacuum. For the first time in a long time, we will see democratically elected leaders come out of the political process to lead a Middle Eastern government. It may not be what we envision democracy to look like in the United States, but that doesn't really matter right now. What matters is that the Iraqi people own and continue to support their process.

David Ignatius wrote a wonderful editorial in the Washington Post this past week-end. I leave you with the thought he closed his article with. It is a quote from Barack Obama during the campaign: "We must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were careless getting in."

We must be patient, we must remain committed and we must continue to do what is right over what is popular.

I look forward to seeing everyone back in the US in a couple of weeks.

Regards,

BRIAN M. KIRCHHOFF

Project Manager - Government

U.S. Embassy

Baghdad, Iraq

GALLUP CONSULTING

maximizer | woo | strategic | ideation | futuristic

Trip to al-Asad

Sorry it has been so long since I last had the chance to write. It seems as though the more comfortable I get in my role, the less time I have. So consider it a good sign I have not had much free time to update everyone. There is no end to the amount of work that must be done out here.

This is a recap of my travels this week. As the draw down continues and everyone moves toward a sovereign and independent Iraq, each day seems to be filled with moments of hope and points of concern. These are some examples of concerns I experienced this week.

19 AUG 09: The large Baghdad VBIED (Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device) attack occurred about a mile away from our office at the NEC. We could hear the explosion and feel the shock wave inside the concrete, blast resistant building. For a moment I thought it was an earthquake as I felt the movement under my feet before I realized that the noise coming from outside was connected to the sensation. That explosion ultimately took 95 lives and injured an additional 300. It was simply a catastrophic event.

I was scheduled to leave for al-Asad base in Anbar out of BIAP (Baghdad International Airport) that evening which requires travel from the IZ to VBC (Victory Base Compound). The VBIED attack caused the mid-day MRAP (Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle) transportation to be canceled, thus pushing my departure time to the evening run. I made my way to the bus stop and eventually made it to BIAP's Helo Ops terminal 10 minutes prior to take off. This is what I flew out on: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:268Phrogapr102003.JPG

20 AUG 09: The flight out stopped several times for fuel and passenger drop offs and pick ups on the way out and took about 3 hours. I arrived in the early hours of the morning, made my way through processing, found my associate at the LZ (Landing Zone) waiting for me and we made our way back to the compound I was visiting. I dropped my gear, made my way to my "can" (what the Marines call their CHUs (Containerized Housing Units), the trailers we all live in) and slept for about 3 1/2 hours, then got up and met the associates I was visiting for breakfast.

It turned out to be a great, highly productive trip. We jammed as much as possible into 12 hours, met with over a dozen people and briefed on a variety of products we provide in theatre nearly all day. It always feels great to have a day like that and it felt like everything came together just in time throughout the entire trip. Hardly a moment was wasted throughout the day.

Upon my return, I experienced a great deal of the hurry-up-and-wait mentality which often embodies our armed forces. I arrived at the al-Asad LZ at in the early evening. We were told the flight would leave earlier than scheduled and we were moved out to the tarmac. We were told the flight would leave in about 30-40 minutes. I need to stop entertaining the notion that leaving early is possible when traveling this way. I thought I might even be able to make the late night MRAP run back from VBC to the IZ. Those hopes were effectively dashed when we eventually took off after waiting on the dark tarmac for 3 more hours. This is the aircraft we flew back on: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CH-53_Super_Stallion.jpg

21 AUG 09: I arrived back at BIAP again in the early hours of the morning before daylight broke. I considered sleeping at VBC in transient housing, but decided instead to call the transportation contractor and arrange a ride back to where the MRAP picks up (late night bus service is far superior to regular bus routes; it's more like taking a cab than waiting for the bus that never comes when you need it). I made it to the pick up location and laid down in the sand, waiting for the trucks to come. They eventually arrived and I made it back to the IZ around 0600. I had to get new keys to my CHU (they changed the locks while I was gone), took a shower and went to bed. That meant I had been up for nearly 24 hours and only had 3 1/2 hours of sleep over the last 48. I was definitely ready to rest.

It turns out I was fortunate to have decided push ahead and not to sleep at VBC. When I got to my office later in the afternoon, I found out the mid-day MRAP was hit by an IED. Fortunately, nobody was killed and only 4 people were injured. This was the run I would have been on had I decided to sleep and not take that early morning transport back. All too often it's a matter of being in the wrong place at the wrong time out here; it is not always about skill or awareness. Sometimes it's just dumb luck.

Some of this is likely the pre-Ramadan violence which typically builds and then curtails as Ramadan officially begins (which should have been either yesterday or today...I haven't heard if they decided to declare it as officially startied or not).

It may be getting quieter in terms of overall violence, but these last few days have reminded me that stability is fragile, this peace is fickle and tenuous. Needless to say, I am thankful to be writing this, wishing those who have have been injured over the past days a fast recovery and lamenting the deaths that seem to be relentless of late.

mid way through july...all is well...

it's been a while since i last updated...it's been a busy few weeks. with the changes coming upon the country as rapidly as they have, there has been no lack of work to keep me occupied.

the past weeks have gone pretty well for iraq as a whole. i would say the pull out of troops from the cities probably gets a "b" at this point. there have certainly been attacks and moments in which ethno-sectarian elements throughout the country have tested the security forces, but thus far they have held up relatively well. there is certainly no spiral toward chaos at this point as some had feared and predicted.

it's hardly a moment of sunni and shia, kurd and arab sitting around the campfire singing cum ba ya either. the differences inherant in these populations are every bit as present as they have been for the past centuries.

but people are talking. concepts of democracy, self determination and the subsequent constitutions are being debated rather than fought over...at least to this point...and that is an important distinction right now. debate is healthy. debate is positive. debate leads to respectful resolution. the fine line between debate and conflict has yet to be crossed, but it clearly could be down the road. and that is everyone's great fear.

there is so much more i would like to say on this, but i will leave it as i have. maybe someday, years down the line, i'll be able to talk in more depth about my perception of what is going on over here right now. until that time comes, i'm going to hope peace progresses and prospers and the forces of productive conflict resolution prevail.

letter to gallup...

I'm going to cheat today...I'm going to recycle the note I wrote to Jim Clifton, Gallup CEO and Jane Miller, Gallup COO updating them on how my first month has gone. Some of this might be a repeat from past blogs, but my analysis of the current situation and what lies ahead in the coming weeks should be new.

It's hard to believe it's been almost a full month since I arrived here. These last 4 weeks have felt like 1 week.

Jim and Jane,

I have been in Iraq for nearly a month and all has been going well thus far. I wanted to take some time to update you both on my status.

On a personal level, I have found a comfortable daily routine. The days are long, typically starting at 0730 and lasting until 2100 or 2200 each night. (And you might notice I have learned to think in military time.) The long days are typically filled with so much work, however, I often lose track of time and am ready to leave the office before I notice where the day has gone.

The living conditions for those of us working within the International Zone are surprisingly quite comfortable. The facilities on the US Embassy compound in particular are top notch. The food is good, abundant and, best of all, free. There are beautiful work-out facilities which include an indoor pool, basketball court, weight room and cardio equipment. This is the largest (and most expensive) US Embassy in the world and those facts are likely not lost on anyone who spends some time here. Lately there has been an ironic effort to grow grass by laying seed on the Embassy compound in an attempt, I suppose, to westernize the look of the grounds. The resultant effect has not so much been the growing of grass as it has been the fattening of pigeons. There are small patches where sod has been laid, which honestly look out of place against the brown backdrop that is Iraq.

I was lucky enough to get the opportunity to see Stephen Colbert film an episode of The Colbert Report from Al Faw Palace. I happened to have meetings scheduled at the palace on one of the days he was filming so I was already scheduled to make the trip from the IZ to Camp Victory. That was certainly the entertainment highlight of my time over here thus far. I have attached a few photos from that day, including one of my transportation.

On a political and situational level, this is and will continue to be a fascinating time to observe the transformation of a nation. Iraq is rapidly moving from an occupied state, to a partnered state and toward the laudable goal of a sovereign nation. Self-determination is looming just over the horizon. While there is still much to be done, the impending June 30^th milestone of the draw down of US combat forces from Iraqi cities, villages and localities is rightfully being viewed as a major step toward the sovereignty path outlined in the US-Iraq Security Agreement signed last November. We heard this morning that the Government of Iraq is calling for the June 30^th milestone to be recognized as a national holiday. It’s hard not to draw comparisons between their anticipation of this date and our own celebration of independence and sovereignty just four days later. While so much is different between the circumstances and situations leading up to these events, one from our history and the other an indicator of Iraq’s future, the spirit of independence and hope that the United Sates is doing right in our partnership toward that independence, makes me proud to be here witnessing these achievements first hand.

Much remains to be seen, however, and fear of violent actions or general destabilization also looms as a real possibility in the coming weeks. Iraq’s democratization is young and tenuous. Factions of dissension and extremism still exist. News reports from the past week highlight the fragile nature of peace and stability. The tragic events in Kirkuk and Baghdad over the past days serve as somber reminders that there is still much to be done throughout Iraq; reminders that the work that lies ahead is every bit as (if not more) important than the foundation laid and progress made over the past several years.

June 30^th will be a milestone indeed. Gallup will be here to document this milestone. There could not be a more important and vital mission for our organization at this time and in this place than helping people be heard. We are truly informing leadership of the opinions of these constituencies in a meaningful way.

I am humbled by the opportunity to work for Gallup in this capacity. I thank you and everyone in the tribe for your continued support. We should all be proud to be a part of this moment in history.

Regards,

Brian M. Kirchhoff

Project Manager - BU

maximizer * woo * strategic * ideation * futuristic

GALLUP

dust storm

so it's all clear skies again, but the last 2 days i could not say the same. we had a pretty major dust storm. everything is now covered in a fine layer of silty, brown dust. the ride home 2 nights ago was like riding home in a hot, brown blizzard. visibility was extremely limited and the headlights on the bus were doing little but reflecting on the dust.

the next morning was more of the same. i got a couple of shots, but they don't really do it justice. as it turns out, it's hard to photograph dust.

i got a couple of shots with my nikon, but it will take some time to get those ready...

the new normal

it's been 2 weeks since i arrived and things are starting to feel like the new normal for me over here. there has been a lot of talk in the media and among my colleagues in the gallup tribe about the new normal as it relates to the united states. most of it has been as a reaction to our country's changes in mentality as we move through economic slowdown (dare i say recession) and inch toward recovery.

i have experienced a similar transformation personally. all of my surroundings have been replaced. all of the people i interact with on a daily basis are gone and there now exists a completely new set of faces and personalities i interact with each day. my mode of transportation is different. no longer can i jump in my car or onto my motorcycle and go wherever i want, whenever i want. when and what i eat has changed. there is very little about my life that looks and feels like it did a month ago.

and i'm starting to realize that none of that matters. and i don't mean none of that matters in the teenage angst ridden "nothing matters" sense of the phrase. what i mean is life remains constant regardless of our surroundings and circumstances and we remain, at essence, the same people we always are. it's no great realization that humans are adaptable. that may be one of the most cliched sentiments rendered. but a healthy dose of ripping oneself out of their comfort zone, untethering the ties of comfort and stability, is good to remind one that the bounds of adaptability are greater than we might realize when we are entrenched in those comfort zones we find ourselves in.

that's probably enough of the esoteric bullshit for one night. i doubt anyone wants to hear me blather on about my revelations of self...at least not any longer than for a few paragraphs.

one concrete reality of the situation over here is that it is, for lack of a better word, calm. i was talking to one of the lieutenant colonels in charge of media affairs yesterday. she spent the past week with stephen colbert and his team while they were filming out here. she recounted that stephen and his producer left with almost a sense of let down in that their is a sense of anticipation for feelings of danger and/or adventure out here. don't get me wrong, they were overjoyed to be out here and really did an amazing job putting on the show. but i know what they are talking about. aside from the fact that there are military personnel and razor wire all around you, you don't feel like you are in a war zone while you are over here. it feels exactly like what it is...the place the war used to be, but isn't quite cleaned up yet and still isn't working quite right.

while i will admit the trip along route irish in a large, armored vehicle can inspire a sense of adventure, there is an overriding sense of order to everything i experience over here. we have been over here for so many years things have become very routinized. while in previous years there had been more frequent disruptions in peace and security, the process of force draw down coupled with a shift from frequent, arbitrary attacks to less frequent, more targeted attacks has created a sense of calm around my experience here thus far. that is not a complaint; i am much safer being over here than i undoubtedly would have been a few years ago. it sounds like if you want adventure, you have to go to afghanastan now and there are quite a few contractors who, as operations draw down here, are doing just that.

it's important to keep in mind that all of my reactions and experiences are from the sanitized lens of living in the international zone and working at the embassy. talking to people outside of this protected bubble will produce wildly varying responses and impressions, to be sure.

thanks for reading...sorry it took me so long to update, but i could update with a saved post and catch up with a new post tonight. if you have anything you would like me to talk about or have questions, i will do my best to answer them or write about what you want to hear. just let me know.

cheers.

first day and morning in baghdad

I first want to include a picture from my hotel room in Kuwait. Subsequent to the taking of this picture, I was informed this is actually a graveyard located in the middle of Kuwait City. There is apparently another 50 year moratorium on the development of this land, so it remains as it is seen here:



After some concern about my colleagues’ (Matt Drane and Chris Stewart) inbound flight being delayed, they made our connecting flight in Kuwait and we all arrived safely in Baghdad last night.

The flight in was not as eventful as I thought it might be…aside from some strange banking and variations in speed, it was a pretty straightforward landing, albeit all exterior and interior lights on the plane were turned off. Though I have to wonder, if someone had something powerful and sophisticated enough to take a plane down, would it matter if the lights were on?

Upon arrival in Baghdad, we were met by our logistics partner and were on our way to our temporary lodging for the night. The first thing that struck me while driving through the area surrounding the airport is the sheer immensity and size of the installations we have here. For a temporary base of operations, the installation looks awfully permanent and massive. And these are just first impressions; I haven’t even made it over the the IZ yet. I was told the first time I see the installations from a helicopter will be the first time I really can appreciate the total size of all of this.

We stopped by the PX which was also surprisingly large in both size and scope. The options available, while limited in choice of brands, were still as plentiful as Target. Anything from 50” flat screen Sony TVs and Xboxes to clothes to toiletries to junk food were available. I got a power converter, Matt bought some clothes and necessities as his luggage didn’t make the transfer from the flight in Kuwait and we headed over to the mess hall for a late night meal. All that was open at the mess hall was the sandwich bar, but I can tell already that the options available for food during the day are going to be plentiful and based on what we ate last night, it should be tasty. My initial thoughts from a year ago when I applied for this assignment of MREs 3 times a day are nowhere near the reality of the situation.

This morning we awoke to the faint sound of machine gun fire in the distance. Not enough to be frightening, but enough to remind me that we are most definitely not in Kansas anymore.

By the end of the day, we will make our way over to the IZ and I should become acquainted with my permanent housing for the next 6 months. I am really looking forward to starting to move around and seeing what this place looks like in the daylight…